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Nielsen GamePlay Metrics Out

Filed in gameplay metrics, in game ads, news, nielsen, July 29, 2007, 7:03 pm by Jeff

Nielsen has released its first set of “GamePlay” metrics [pdf]. Here’s a quick summary of what they included:

Console Usage Report Trend - June 2007

 

June
Console % of Total Mins Used # of Sessions During Days Played Avg Minutes Per Session
PlayStation 2 42.3 1.95 62
Xbox 17.0 2.17 62
Xbox 360 8.0 2.21 61
GameCube 5.8 1.76 55
Wii 4.0 1.78 57
PlayStation 3 1.5 1.95 83
Other 21.3 1.84 62
All 100.0 1.99 62

Console Usage Report Trend - May 2007

 

May
Console % of Total Mins Used # of Sessions During Days Played Avg Minutes Per Session
PlayStation 2 45.7 1.95 58
Xbox 15.1 2.03 53
Xbox 360 12.1 1.93 68
GameCube 6.9 1.71 57
Wii 3.0 1.70 52
PlayStation 3 1.3 1.66 58
Other 15.9 1.76 56
All 100.0 1.89 58

At first, these numbers were really surprising to me. I didn’t expect to see PS2 and Xbox so far ahead of the 360. But a quick check of console sales records at VG Chartz shows this is probably to be expected. PS2 has such a mammoth install base, that it’s only natural for that platform to have so many minutes.

But, let’s look at the other consoles as well. The most recent data on VG Chartz is from March, so it’s not ideal to compare the two, but it’s the best we can do for now. Here’s the American sales data from March next to the Nielsen data from May:

Console Mar-2007 Life to Date (LTD) Sales (America) May-2007 % of Total Mins Used
PlayStation 2 47.68M - 55% 45.7%
Xbox 16.42M - 19% 15.1%
Xbox 360 6.96M - 8% 12.1%
GameCube 12.81M - 15% 6.9%
Wii 2.37M - 3% 3.0%

LTD percentages are calculated against only the five consoles listed.

The Xbox 360 and GameCube differences are interesting. Why is the comparatively small install base of Xbox 360 responsible for twice as many gaming minutes? Does Nielsen monitor too few GameCube households? Was there a surge of 360 sales in April/May? Are Xbox 360 games more engaging? Did GameCube owners transition to the Wii during April/May? These and other explanations are plausible… It’s impossible to know exactly why this is.

What I’d like to see are console #’s in the Nielsen report. This would help us understand if oddities like this are a result of a skewed console distribution.

Sources:

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Blocked!

Filed in housekeeping, July 17, 2007, 11:58 pm by Jeff

A small housekeeping notice: I’m now returning 403’s to any client that identifies itself as “Twisted PageGetter”. Last month, this aggressive spider was responsible for 35% of my page-hit traffic. I’ve seen no letup this month so now it’s blocked. A quick search shows this is the default agent for Ruby, so if you’ve got Ruby skills, give the guys at 207.0.19.182 a call. They need some serious scripting help.

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Numbers Game

Filed in in game ads, market analysis, news, predictions, July 12, 2007, 11:14 pm by Jeff

Predicting the growth of the in-game market seems to be a popular activity these days. Over the past three months four large reports have been released. Let’s take a look at what they’ve got.

In April, eMarketer released a 14 page report that examined video-game related advertising from a number of angles. Disclosure: I’ve read the report, but I’m going to avoid quoting from it directly (since it is a paid download). Overall they paint a rosy market picture. They cite positive comments last year from Joanne Bradford (Microsoft) and from Google on their acquisition of Adscape Media. They also claim the continued strength of the gaming market as a whole (and recently the increasing appeal to casual gamers) will also fuel advertising growth.

So let’s get to the numbers - their press release predicts that worldwide spending will rise from $692M today to $1,938M in 2011. They believe the US market contributes 50% of that figure.

Wowza! That’s a 22.9% CAGR (compound annual growth rate).

Parks Associates has more optimistic numbers. In June they released a 190 page report (I haven’t read all of this one =) that predicts market growth from $370M in US generated revenue in 2006 to $2,051M in US generated revenue in 2012.

Double wowza! That’s a 33% CAGR.

What I find most interesting here is that one of the authors of the report dismisses the idea of advertising in casual games. Speaking about the report to GamesIndustry.biz, Yuanzhe Cai says “I think the casual game genre is not very appopriate for in-game advertising.” Personally I disagree with him, so by his assessment $2B may be an underestimate.

Up next, PricewaterhouseCoopers. In their June “Global Entertainment and Media Outlook” report (which I haven’t seen), they expect a 9.1% CAGR for the games market overall, but much faster growth in in-game advertising. They expect US revenue growth from $80M in 2006 to $950M by 2011, which works out to a 51% CAGR. Triple wowza!

Finally, the Yankee Group. This month they released a report (which I haven’t seen) that predicts growth from $77M worldwide in 2006 to $971.3M in 2011. These are the most conservative numbers of the bunch, but I can only assume that’s due to the scope of the report. It’s titled “Advertising and Games: 2007 In-Game Advertising Forecast.” So I presume it doesn’t include estimates for advergaming (which others typically break out separately).

Even though these numbers seem much lower than the other reports, the growth rate is through the roof. $77M to $971.3M in 6 years represents a 52.6% CAGR. Wowzatacular!

By all accounts we have a bright future ahead of us.

Sources:

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